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- 💙 Gate Square #Gate Blue Challenge# 💙
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC shows weak signals before the release, with short-term fluctuations facing the risk of falling to $115,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing potential signs of weakness, with three technical charts indicating that a new weekly bottom may emerge in July. Although the long-term trend remains optimistic, investors should approach short-term fluctuations with caution. Currently, there is a hidden bearish divergence between the price of Bitcoin and the key Momentum Index relative strength index (RSI).
When the price reaches a higher high but the RSI remains unchanged or slightly declines, a hidden bearish divergence appears, indicating that the bullish momentum is no longer sustainable.
Bitcoin experienced a similar situation in March 2024, leading to a 20% fall in just a few days. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may soon undergo another correction and could potentially drop to new lows in the short term.
(Source: Trading View)
CME gap plays a role in driving prices
On the daily chart, there is a gap in CME, specifically in the range of $114,380 to $115,635, which was formed when Bitcoin was traded after hours on the CME exchange, leaving an unfilled price range.
History shows that most of these gaps tend to be "filled" early on. So far, out of the 9 CME gaps formed in 2025, 7 have been filled, leaving only two remaining, including the area of $114,000.
The likelihood of returns filling this gap is very high, further strengthening the case for a short-term retracement of Bitcoin.
(Source: Trading View)
Distribution signals appear in the market cycle
According to anonymous analyst Gaah's analysis, the Bitcoin Cycle Index (IBCI) has entered the "distribution zone"—a stage typically associated with market euphoria and local peaks. This is the third time the IBCI has entered this area in the current bull market cycle.
Although the index only reached 80% (not reaching the absolute peak of 100% like in previous cycles), it is still a warning signal. Fundamental indicators such as the Puell Multiple and STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder's Output Profit Ratio) are still below neutral, indicating that speculative activity and miners' profit-taking have not yet peaked.
Gaah stated: "The performance of IBCI clearly warns that the market is entering a high-risk area of short-term adjustment, although it has not yet reached the main cycle peak."
(Source: CryptoQuant)