Bitcoin Q4 bull run signals emerging? Four indicators suggest $200,000 target | BTC price prediction

Bitcoin (BTC) retraced 7% to $114,000 in early August after reaching a historic high of $123,400 in July. Multiple on-chain data releases positive signals: the net transfer value ratio (NVT) dropped 32% month-on-month, indicating a reasonable valuation; miner OTC balances fell to a historical low of 147,500 BTC, showing a reluctance to sell; continuous net outflows from exchanges (with a single-day outflow of $21.49 million on August 5) suggest long-term coin hoarding. Coupled with high reserves of mainstream CEX stablecoins (sufficient external funds) and the seasonal rise pattern in Q4, Bitcoin may be poised to challenge the $200,000 mark. However, market saturation and swing sentiment remain upward resistance.

1. Price correction coexists with strong seasonal expectations for Q4 Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high (ATH) of $123,400 in July 2025, but after entering August, it experienced a 7% price pullback due to technical correction and macro pressures, currently trading at the $114,000 level. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter (Q4), and this seasonal strength may reappear this year. Meanwhile, the stablecoin reserves of mainstream CEXs remain high, indicating that a significant amount of sidelined capital is ready to enter the market. The technical pullback and positive fundamentals create a potential resonance, laying a favorable foundation for future market performance. However, under the current market saturation and mixed sentiment, whether Bitcoin can continue the price discovery process and hit the $200,000 target or fall into consolidation remains uncertain.

2. Continuous net outflow from the exchange: Giant whales coin hoarding signal reappears On August 5, Bitcoin recorded a net outflow of $21.49 million from exchanges, continuing the long-term negative net flows trend since mid-April. Historical experience shows that sustained net outflows from exchanges usually indicate that holders (especially whales) are engaging in strong accumulation, with funds being transferred from exchanges to long-term cold storage. This trend significantly reduces sell-side pressure in the market and is often a precursor to bullish rallies. However, the current price movement has not synchronously confirmed this bullish logic; if there is a lack of actual buy demand to support it, the effect of pure supply sidelining is limited. Traders need to wait for clear price confirmation signals to determine the bottom pattern.

3. NVT ratio plummeted by 32%: Network value supported by trading volume As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin Net Transfer Value Ratio (NVT Ratio) has dropped significantly by over 32%, falling to a level of 29.2. This decline in the ratio indicates an enhanced alignment between the network value of Bitcoin and the actual on-chain transaction volume. A lower NVT typically suggests that the current valuation is driven more by on-chain actual utility rather than speculation. Historically, such deep pullbacks often precede price expansions, especially when accompanied by a rebound in demand. However, it is important to note that this signal should be assessed in conjunction with other indicators to determine its effectiveness.

4. Miner OTC balance hits historical low: Strong reluctance to sell The balance of Bitcoin miners' (Miners) over-the-counter (OTC) trading has fallen to 147,500 BTC, at a historical low (Historic Low) for many years. This extreme data indicates that miners have a very low willingness to sell at the current price level, releasing a strong signal of extreme caution in selling (Signal of Extreme Caution in Selling). This pattern is often interpreted as a bullish long-term signal (Bullish Long-Term Signal). When miners reduce selling pressure, the market liquid supply (Liquid Supply) contracts accordingly. Historically, similar lows have appeared multiple times before major bull runs (Major Bull Runs) start. However, it is important to emphasize that the positive impact of supply contraction must be supported by actual demand (Demand) in order to translate into price increase momentum; otherwise, the effect of mere supply locking is limited.

5. Market sentiment shows initial signs of warming: cautious optimism begins to sprout After several months of intense fluctuations, the Bitcoin Weighted Sentiment Index has turned from negative to positive, currently standing at 0.186. This moderate rebound reflects the growing cautious optimism among traders. Looking back, the sentiment peaks in May and June were fleeting, indicating that the market remains highly sensitive to external triggers. The recent stability in sentiment may signal a gradual confidence rebuilding, but its sustainability still requires support from price performance. If Bitcoin can maintain key support zones in the coming weeks (especially as we approach Q4), market sentiment is expected to further improve.

Conclusion: The on-chain data of Bitcoin (NVT plummeting by 32%, miner OTC balances hitting historical lows, continuous net outflow from exchanges) collectively releases positive signals, forming potential bullish catalysts in conjunction with the seasonal patterns of Q4 and the high stablecoin reserves at mainstream CEXs (sufficient external funds). However, market saturation and swing sentiment remain upward resistance. Whether Bitcoin can restart the price discovery process to hit the target of $200,000 hinges on whether it can activate real buying demand (Revived Demand) and solidify market confidence (Sustained Sentiment). If the on-chain accumulation signals resonate with seasonal momentum, BTC may be expected to break through the consolidation and embark on a new journey; conversely, if the demand side continues to weaken, the rebound momentum may be delayed. The key gaming window after the halving cycle has quietly opened.